LOOK AT THIS WITH TWO EYES – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  A new Pew Research poll appears to have some limited good news for President Obama, but note the details.  From The Politico:

A challenger might have room to unseat President Barack Obama’s reelection bid, but no dominant Republican candidate has emerged so far, a new poll suggests.

Reinforcing what other state-by-state and national surveys have found, a Pew Research Center poll released Wednesday has Obama polling strongly but not overwhelmingly well, with 47 percent of registered voters saying they’d like to see him reelected to a second term. Thirty-seven percent of those surveyed said they’d prefer to see a Republican candidate win in 2012, while 16 percent said they were undecided.

And get this:

The poll surveyed 1,525 adults, including 1,251 registered voters, March 8-14. For registered voters, the error margin for the poll is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

COMMENT:  I have no idea why they surveyed adults, only a percentage of whom are registered voters.  In fact, I have no idea why they did this poll at all, as it demonstrates nothing.

Polls of "adults" or "registered voters" tend to favor Democrats.  When the poll is limited to "likely voters," the only people who actually count in an election, Republican numbers go up. 

I'd imagine – this is informed speculation – that you could lop five points or so off Obama's rating if the poll had been taken among "likely voters," and add about the same number to Republicans, making the result about even.  And that would be lesser news for the president.

But all polls I've seen thus far reinforce the main point we've been making here:  The Republicans need a strong, attractive candidate, not just the next guy in line.  They may have to go to their young bench.  The "big names" don't look that big.

March 24, 2011